Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
### Dane
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 09 2020 | 1037 | 19168 | 41 | 6 | 236 | 289 |
| September 10 2020 | 1060 | 19290 | 42 | 6 | 259 | 292 |
| September 11 2020 | 1098 | 19468 | 42 | 6 | 273 | 318 |
| September 12 2020 | 1171 | 19766 | 42 | 6 | 333 | 381 |
| September 13 2020 | 1232 | 20082 | 43 | 6 | 372 | 431 |
| September 14 2020 | 1259 | 20176 | 43 | 6 | 377 | 458 |
| September 15 2020 | 1286 | 20231 | 43 | 6 | 381 | 461 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 1.3% | 5 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 7.9 | 23.1% | 88 | 0.65% | 106 | 0.78% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 26.4 | 61.2% | 233 | 1.11% | 278 | 1.33% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.4 | 3.9% | 15 | 0.11% | 18 | 0.13% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.1 | 3.1% | 12 | 0.11% | 18 | 0.17% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.9% | 11 | 0.09% | 13 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.7 | 3.4% | 13 | 0.11% | 16 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.4 | 1% | 4 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 27 | 40.9 | 100% | 381 | 0.36% | 461 | 0.44% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 09 2020 | 389 | 12673 | 17 | 0 | 44 | 77 |
| September 10 2020 | 395 | 12747 | 17 | 0 | 48 | 72 |
| September 11 2020 | 403 | 12847 | 17 | 0 | 53 | 72 |
| September 12 2020 | 409 | 12908 | 17 | 0 | 55 | 67 |
| September 13 2020 | 418 | 12993 | 17 | 0 | 54 | 73 |
| September 14 2020 | 420 | 13036 | 17 | 0 | 49 | 73 |
| September 15 2020 | 423 | 13084 | 17 | 0 | 47 | 73 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 09 2020 | 393 | 7787 | 18 | 3 | 23 | 29 |
| September 10 2020 | 394 | 7850 | 18 | 4 | 24 | 29 |
| September 11 2020 | 394 | 7922 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 25 |
| September 12 2020 | 395 | 7929 | 18 | 4 | 20 | 25 |
| September 13 2020 | 396 | 7931 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 26 |
| September 14 2020 | 398 | 8017 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 28 |
| September 15 2020 | 401 | 8142 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 29 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 09 2020 | 1370 | 22056 | 39 | 2 | 193 | 293 |
| September 10 2020 | 1445 | 22189 | 39 | 2 | 263 | 336 |
| September 11 2020 | 1523 | 22407 | 39 | 2 | 321 | 390 |
| September 12 2020 | 1625 | 22558 | 39 | 2 | 417 | 469 |
| September 13 2020 | 1754 | 22560 | 39 | 2 | 515 | 577 |
| September 14 2020 | 1799 | 22561 | 40 | 2 | 513 | 617 |
| September 15 2020 | 1889 | 22605 | 41 | 2 | 577 | 687 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 42 | 28.4 | 36.7% | 212 | 1.28% | 232 | 1.4% |
| 20-29 | 33 | 37.4 | 48% | 277 | 1.3% | 334 | 1.57% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.9% | 17 | 0.13% | 26 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 3.1 | 4.5% | 26 | 0.19% | 32 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.1 | 2.8% | 16 | 0.11% | 25 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.7 | 2.6% | 15 | 0.11% | 19 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.6 | 1.9% | 11 | 0.08% | 16 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 90 | 76.9 | 100% | 577 | 0.49% | 687 | 0.58% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 09 2020 | 6489 | 171531 | 338 | 41 | 1063 | 1280 |
| September 10 2020 | 6971 | 172451 | 340 | 41 | 1542 | 1677 |
| September 11 2020 | 7254 | 172750 | 343 | 41 | 1734 | 1924 |
| September 12 2020 | 7389 | 173348 | 343 | 41 | 1825 | 2002 |
| September 13 2020 | 7622 | 174239 | 344 | 41 | 1983 | 2196 |
| September 14 2020 | 7846 | 174544 | 345 | 41 | 2047 | 2417 |
| September 15 2020 | 7896 | 175620 | 346 | 41 | 1935 | 2376 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.9 | 0.9% | 17 | 0.03% | 25 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 25 | 122.6 | 59.2% | 1146 | 1.61% | 1378 | 1.94% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 63.0 | 29.3% | 566 | 0.54% | 698 | 0.67% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 8.1 | 4.1% | 79 | 0.1% | 100 | 0.13% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 5.4 | 2.1% | 41 | 0.06% | 61 | 0.09% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.3 | 2.1% | 41 | 0.06% | 53 | 0.08% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2.4 | 1.5% | 29 | 0.05% | 36 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.1 | 0.8% | 16 | 0.03% | 25 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 50 | 209.9 | 100% | 1935 | 0.35% | 2376 | 0.43% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 09 2020 | 83334 | 1238173 | 6173 | 1183 | 7997 | 11074 |
| September 10 2020 | 84881 | 1245448 | 6222 | 1193 | 9278 | 11743 |
| September 11 2020 | 86250 | 1254034 | 6263 | 1197 | 9666 | 12269 |
| September 12 2020 | 87603 | 1264305 | 6309 | 1209 | 10474 | 12803 |
| September 13 2020 | 89185 | 1270458 | 6332 | 1210 | 11329 | 13848 |
| September 14 2020 | 89956 | 1273607 | 6350 | 1210 | 10602 | 14353 |
| September 15 2020 | 91304 | 1284525 | 6406 | 1220 | 11004 | 14720 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 23 | 28.3 | 2.3% | 248 | 0.04% | 346 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 256 | 300.3 | 23.7% | 2613 | 0.35% | 3231 | 0.43% |
| 20-29 | 376 | 386.7 | 30% | 3299 | 0.44% | 4240 | 0.56% |
| 30-39 | 161 | 128.9 | 10.3% | 1136 | 0.15% | 1614 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 161 | 117.0 | 9.3% | 1026 | 0.15% | 1505 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 154 | 138.1 | 11.2% | 1234 | 0.15% | 1747 | 0.21% |
| 60-69 | 109 | 86.6 | 7.2% | 788 | 0.1% | 1104 | 0.15% |
| 70+ | 108 | 75.1 | 6% | 660 | 0.1% | 933 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 1348 | 1261.0 | 100% | 11004 | 0.19% | 14720 | 0.25% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.1 | 77.9 | 132.8 | 40.9 | 14.6 | 21.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58.1 | 140.2 | 156.9 | 76.9 | 21.9 | 40.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.5 | 193.9 | 67.2 | 209.9 | 67 | 22.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.3 | 42.7 | 56 | 1261 | 767.6 | 14% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 23.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1305"